Region on brink of disaster: melting glacier puts India, Pakistan, Bangladesh at risk

New Delhi (The Uttam Hindu): The likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth has increased from an initial 1 percent to 2.3 percent raising alarm among scientists. Although the risk is still relatively low the ongoing rise in probability is troubling especially since details regarding the asteroid's size and speed remain unclear. With scientists estimating the asteroid could be up to 200 meters in size the potential for massive destruction is concerning. If it were to hit Earth, it could unleash energy greater than 500 atomic bombs devastating entire cities.

NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey team led by engineer David Rankin has identified a risk corridor that spans from northern South America to the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea and parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Countries most likely to be impacted include India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador. While the collision remains unlikely, Rankin emphasizes that its potential consequences cannot be ignored.

Discovered last December, asteroid 2024 YR4 has quickly become a primary concern for both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). The asteroid, which is set to pass Earth at a distance of 106,000 km on December 22, 2032, poses a threat along a narrow path that extends from western Central America to northern South America, across the central Atlantic Ocean, parts of Africa and reaching into India. With a margin of error of 1.6 million km, scientists continue to closely monitor its trajectory.

Placed in the most dangerous category with a rating of three on the Torino scale, the asteroid’s future path remains uncertain but its increasing risk prompts significant attention from space agencies worldwide. While a collision is far from certain, the potential devastation is a sobering reminder of the unpredictable threats posed by asteroids in our solar system.