Delhi Assembly poll: Brand Kejriwal faces toughest test as BJP looks to break 25-year jinx

New Delhi (The Uttam Hindu): Brand Arvind Kejriwal is set to face its toughest test yet as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), an off-shoot of an anti-corruption campaign of Anna Hazare, looks to return to power in Delhi for a third successive term.

The AAP’s third attempt at capturing the ‘Dilli Darbar’ comes amid fears of anti-incumbency, poor performance of MLAs, and the party chief’s growing faith in turncoats from other parties.

The fact that the youngest of the three parties in Delhi is keen to field dissidents or old war horses from the BJP and Congress, reportedly on a third of the 70 seats, reflects Kejriwal’s growing maturity in politics and dexterity in micropolitics, say political analysts.

The induction of almost a dozen BJP and Congress former MLAs into the AAP also reflects Kejriwal’s realisation that his charisma is no longer enough to get any candidate or non-performing sitting MLA elected. This is a cause of worry for the AAP which it seems to be addressing.

Kejriwal appears to be getting ready for the toughest battle of his political career and championing the vote bank politics of free services for the poorest of voters – an art he has mastered.

Despite the BJP’s growing desperation to come to power in Delhi, Kejriwal seems to be in no mood to let pundits write his political obituary just yet. Not even in the backdrop of the corruption allegations levelled by rivals and jail stays of his and his cabinet colleagues.

"There is no guarantee that allegations of corruption against Kejriwal or the AAP will do the same trick for the BJP as they did for the new outfit which rode an anti-corruption wave to come to power," said S.K. Chahal, Dean, Social Sciences, Kurukshetra University.

He said elections in Delhi are decided by the poor, slum dwellers, and migrants and Kejriwal has managed to remain on the offensive, rather than slip into a defensive mode, despite the tirade against him. In fact, he has countered by questioning the BJP on the law and order situation.

"Poor voters still constitute 70-80 per cent of the electorate and the one who picks their issues will succeed. Kejriwal has very smartly addressed these voters’ concerns with free power, water, and health services over the past 10 years," Chahal said.

The AAP continues to work on its strategy of targeting certain categories of voters including autorickshaw drivers seeking fare hikes, e-rickshaw drivers who need free power, and lawyers who have been offered insurance cover.

The AAP had won 62 out of 70 seats in Delhi Assembly in 2015. The BJP won 8 and the Congress failed to open its account. Elections to pick the 8th Delhi Legislative Assembly are likely to be held around February.

BJP’s 25-year jinx

The forced political exile of the BJP in the Capital has lasted 25 years. There can’t be a better opportunity for the Vijay Rath of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah to end the political drought of the Delhi unit, especially, after a series of electoral wins in Lok Sabha and key states like Haryana and Maharashtra.

Over the past three decades, the party’s Assembly election failures have been linked to its tendency to lose sight of the bigger mission while attempting to give fair representation to the various sub-groups or communities like Punjabis, Jats, Vaishyas, and Poorvanchalis.

The party’s trusted caste-matrix formula and Hindutva pitch don’t really work in Delhi as effectively as they do in other states, probably, because the voters here are more aware and practical about what they need from the government, say political analysts.

New Delhi Lok Sabha MP Bansuri Swaraj, whose mother Sushma Swaraj was the last BJP Chief Minister that Delhi had in 1998, has emerged as a potential “Woman CM” face in the city. North-East Lok Sabha MP Manoj Tiwari, the only sitting MP to be fielded in parliamentary elections earlier this year, is also a strong contender for the top post, said party sources.

There are indications that the upcoming Assembly elections may turn out to be a clash between the development model of the Modi government and the Kejriwal government.

Chahal said that the BJP’s inability to win a majority in the Delhi Assembly is partly linked to a leadership crisis at the local unit level. "There is no Garibo ka Masiha in Delhi BJP to rival Kejriwal," he said.

Fort Delhi remains a challenge for the BJP which always wins in Lok Sabha elections but fails in Assembly elections where micro and colony-level issues get eminent.

BJP leaders in Delhi are confident that the corruption allegations against Kejriwal and his ministers over the excise policy, the renovation of his official residence or "Sheeshmahal", and scams in Yamuna cleaning would be able to turn the tide in the party’s favour in the coming elections.

Chahal believes that the BJP wants to address the poor voters’ concerns but the real challenge lies in its ability to convince the migrants or slum dwellers that it would deliver better or on par with the AAP.

In fact, one indication of BJP’s course correction in the current Assembly elections on “freebies” came recently when the party’s manifesto committee leaders indicated that the party would not only continue free services like water, power and bus travel but also improve their quality on coming to power.

Till the last election, the BJP had confined itself to calling Kejriwal’s free welfare schemes as “bad economics” and a “wastage of tax-payers’ money”.

The BJP is also aiming to capitalise on the so-called dissatisfaction among sections of voters including Out-of-job bus marshals and contract employees in hospitals, agitating guest teachers, DTC contract employees, and autorickshaw drivers.

The issue of ‘bogus voters’ or the presence of Rohingyas in voters’ list has also been highlighted by the BJP which is also promising Rs 5 lakh health insurance under PM-JAY.

It remains to be seen if the seven BJP MPs from Delhi and the charisma of PM Modi will manage to break the party’s 25-year jinx.

Congress battling revival pangs

For the Congress, which has not been able to win even a single seat in the Assembly since 2015, there is nothing to lose. Delhi Congress President Devender Yadav has already announced the party’s decision to fight elections alone in all 70 constituencies. He even described the tie-up with the AAP in the Lok Sabha election as a mistake.

Yadav’s Delhi Nyay Yatra concluded on Saturday after covering 650 km across 70 Assembly segments, giving a glimmer of hope to its cadre. However, the big questions about a leadership crisis and organisational network crisis still remain.

Ever since the poor, Dalits and Muslim supporters of the Congress switched loyalty to the AAP in 2015, the Congress has shrunk in influence. Its two dozen councillors in MCD are the only elected representatives in the city which once ruled Delhi for 15 years.

Yadav’s latest strategy of questioning Kejriwal on law and order in the city appears to be striking a chord with the party’s traditional voters in the rural belt.

He has asked Kejriwal about the difference the AAP has brought about in the city over the past 10 years, after coming to power in 2015 by accusing the then Congress Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit of lawlessness in the city in the backdrop of the Nirbhaya gangrape.

"Law and order was in the hands of the Central government in 2015 and is still with the Union government, so what is the AAP’s contribution in this field?" he asked recently, accusing the AAP convenor of using poor law and order as a stick to beat the rivals for political gains just before Assembly elections.

Political analysts believe the Congress will remain an insignificant player in the upcoming Assembly elections as it remains riddled with a leadership crisis.

But its presence in the fray is only going to benefit the BJP as the contest may turn into a triangular fight in some pockets, something that the BSP used to do two decades ago.